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2015 Major League Baseball Predictions

With 40 days until Opening Day, take a look at our season predictions:

(*) = 1st Wild Card Team
(**) = 2nd Wild Card Team

American League East:

Place Brett Malamud’s Pick Alex Horowitz’s Pick
1 Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox
2 Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles
3 New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays
4 Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays
5 Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees

 

American League Central:

Place Brett Malamud’s Pick Alex Horowitz’s Pick
1 Cleveland Indians Cleveland Indians
2 Detroit Tigers* Kansas City Royals**
3 Kansas City Royals Chicago White Sox
4 Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers
5 Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins

 

American League West:

Place Brett Malamud’s Pick Alex Horowitz’s Pick
1 Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners
2 Oakland Athletics** Los Angeles Angels*
3 Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros
4 Houston Astros Oakland Athletics
5 Texas Rangers Texas Rangers

 

National League East:

Place Brett Malamud’s Pick Alex Horowitz’s Pick
1 Washington Nationals Washington Nationals
2 New York Mets New York Mets**
3 Miami Marlins Miami Marlins
4 Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves
5 Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies

 

National League Central:

Place Brett Malamud’s Pick Alex Horowitz’s Pick
1 St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals
2 Pittsburgh Pirates* Pittsburgh Pirates*
3 Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs
4 Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds
5 Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers

 

National League West:

Place Brett Malamud’s Pick Alex Horowitz’s Pick
1 San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants
2 San Francisco Giants** San Diego Padres
3 Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
4 Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks
5 Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies
With some added big bats, the Red Sox are ready to head back to October baseball (Via WBZ-TV

With some added big bats, the Red Sox are ready to head back to October baseball (Via WBZ-TV

Playoffs:

Game Brett Malamud’s Pick Alex Horowitz’s Pick
ALCS Red Sox defeat Mariners Red Sox defeat Indians
NLCS Nationals defeat Cardinals Cardinals defeat Nationals
World Series Nationals defeat Red Sox Cardinals defeat Red Sox

 

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MLB Staff Picks

The smell of peanuts and cracker jacks is in the air. After 152 days since the Red Sox walked off the field as champions, baseball is back. Our picks are in for this year’s fall classic. Here they are:

Writer

Pick

Brett Malamud

 I’m taking the Yankees over the Dodgers. Both teams have proven this offseason that they want to win now. The Yankees unloaded after missing the playoffs by opening their checkbook and spending close to $500 million. The additions of Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Masahiro Tanaka immediately make the Yankees a legitimate threat. But don’t think they’re the only team spending the big bucks. The Dodgers passed the Yankees for the MLB’s highest payroll, ending the Yankees 15 year streak, by spending $235 million this season. All and all I’d say Derek Jeter better start spreading the news that his final season will end with a ticker tape parade down the Canyon of Heroes.

Sam Breiter

 As an extremely optimistic Mets fan with nothing but the highest expectations, I’m always going to take my team. So along with my Mets, I’m taking the rival Yankees. The Mets have young talent in there rotation, and a growing lineup. They may make a huge move by the deadline, and Zach Wheeler will suprise people this year. Yankees, because they spent money this offseason and are clearly doing anything to win a year after missing the playoffs

Dan Lagnado

 In the NL I’ll take the Dodgers and in the AL I’ll take Detroit. Dodgers win a six game series behind Kershaw and Greinke who each win two games

Josh Halilej

 Tigers over Cardinals. Lots of solid pitching between the two of them. I think Justin Verlander comes back big this year and comes out as the Tigers’ #1 with Rick Porcello having an awesome year too finishing ahead of Max Scherzer in the pitching rotation. The Cards are going to need Yadier Molina to manage the pitching staff well, but they just don’t have the overall offensive firepower that Detroit does with the addition of Ian Kinsler. Watch out for the Rangers though if they can have someone aside from Yu Darvish step up in their rotation.

Seth Schuster

 Red Sox over Dodgers. Only a little bit of bias plays into this one…Both are great teams with amazing young talent. With the recent resurgence of John Lackey, John Lester, a healthy Clay Buchholz, and a young and very talented Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox will be the 2014 World Series Champions. With the leadership of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Mike Napoli, look for the Sox to make a push for the repeat.

Ben Ozur

 Rays vs Dodgers. There’s no explanation for why the Rays are good every year, but the undeniable fact is that they are. However nobody is on the Dodgers level in terms of overall talent. Despite multiple holes including infield depth and major league ready pitchers in the minors, their superstar talent everywhere else will cover that up.

Ryan Gillman

 Dodgers over Tigers. The Dodgers are armed with a wealth of talent and the largest payroll in history. Anything less than a championship would be a disappointment.

Sam  Iryami

 Nationals vs Tigers. Nationals win. The Nationals have the best pitching rotation in baseball with the front four being Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Doug Fister. Pitching wins games. Although the Tigers have a great all around team, the team is full of veterans. However, they are definitely a contender for the World Series because of their many stars such as Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, and Max Scherzer. Both teams have unbelievable pitching and hitting, but I have the Nationals taking home the trophy in this one.

Zach Pokorny

 Dodgers vs Angels, but I’d pick the Angels because Mike Trout is amazing
Derek Jeter has one last season in his hall of fame career and will make the most of it (Via Sabo News)

Derek Jeter has one last season in his hall of fame career and will make the most of it (Via Sabo News)

We hope everyone enjoys Opening Day and stays locked in to Dabuzzza here and on our twitter page this MLB season. We know we will.

MLB Hot Stove Roundup: What’s Happened Since the Fielder-Kinsler Trade?

By Ben Ozur

With the exception of an eventual Robinson Cano signing, this blockbuster trade will most likely end up being the headline of the offseason. But other moves have since been made. Here are the other miscellaneous moves that have been made since the trade (in chronological order):

The Royals sign LHP Jason Vargas. Though many believe this was an overpay (as we will see with other signings later), this was a good move for the Royals. It adds depth to a rotation that already has James Shields and Jeremy Guthrie, and it fills the void of the probably-departing Ervin Santana. He is a solid three-or-four-starter who will give the Royals a veteran who can give innings – something that the Royals find pretty valuable. I think this will set the tone for other KC offseason moves that will allow them to be a real threat for a Wild Card spot this year.

The Mets sign OF Chris Young. See article here.

The Cardinals trade 3B David Freese to the Angels for OF Peter Bourjos. These two guys are both coming off tough years, but these two guys have both showed promise in the past. Also, it fills holes for both teams. The Angels desperately needed a third baseman, after getting the worst third base production in the MLB. However, David Freese was only a league average hitter last year, so it wasn’t a huge improvement. With Peter Bourjos, he brings extra depth to centerfield already occupied by Jon Jay (I assume they will platoon, or maybe Bourjos will get the larger share). They can both afford to part ways with their old players; the Angels have JB Shuck to use in leftfield, and the Cardinals now have room for top prospect Kolten Wong to start at second base (Matt Carpenter will move to third base). This is a close call, but I give the edge to the Cardinals in this trade.

The Yankees sign C Brian McCann. By signing the clear-cut best catcher on the free agent market (and one of the top catchers in the league in general), this was easily the biggest move of the offseason for the Yankees (with no disrespect to the trading of Chris Stewart). He is one of the best offensive catchers in the league, and he has been said to be a good guy to have behind the plate. However, his production, albeit potentially due to injury, has faltered over the past two seasons. Though he is definitely a top catcher in the league, it may be because of the weakness of the position as a whole. He is being paid this much because he is one of the best at what he does, but I don’t think he’s worth that money. Also consider that he will probably be a DH by the end of this deal, which decreases his value even more. Short-term, this deal will probably work out for the Yankees. In two years, I believe it will be a regret.

Brian McCann made headlines last week, signing with the Yankees (Via Bronx Baseball Daily)

Brian McCann made headlines last week, signing with the Yankees (Via Bronx Baseball Daily)

The Cardinals sign SS Jhonny Peralta. Aside from the controversy due to the PED usage, it’s hard to deny the great deal the Cardinals got. Peralta is a well above average offensive shortstop (he has shown that throughout his career, even before his suspension-filled 2013 season) and arguably the best shortstop on the market (close with Stephen Drew). It also fills a gaping hole for the Cardinals, as thy received the worst production from their shortstops in the MLB in 2013 (primarily Pete Kozma). This was clearly a good signing, but of course, there’s the controversy. Though you may not like the rule of how short the suspension is, you have to deal with it. He was told to sit out for 50 games and he did. He served his punishment, and that should be the end of it. Anyway, why should the Cardinals be criticized for the signing? It’s not like they’re condoning his decision to take PEDs. I get that people are still peeved about this, but in terms of this signing, it shouldn’t be seen as a factor of how good it truly was.

The Dodgers sign RHP Dan Haren. A $10M deal for a pitcher who hasn’t had even a league average season for a pitcher since 2011? I get it; he’ll probably be the fourth starter for the Dodgers, and they have all the money in the world to spend. But that doesn’t mean they should just throw it away. They should’ve been more resourceful with that money. There are better pitchers on the market, and they’re probably going to make less (i.e. Bartolo Colon, Paul Maholm, and others on the trade market). Not too good of a signing in my opinion, but still, there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

The Twins sign RHPs Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes. This was certainly a forced issue. Ricky Nolasco – okay, solid pitcher, good fit for the Twins in that ballpark, but for over $11M AAV (average annual value)? Phil Hughes – there is no justification in this signing. He has never posted an ERA under 4 in a season as a full-time starter, and he’s making $8M a year? I get it – the Twins are desperate for pitcher, coming off a year where their starting staff collected a cumulative ERA over 5, easily the worth in the MLB. But the last few times they’ve tried to get pitchers (Vance Worley and Mike Pelfrey, namely), they’ve been disasters. I understand it’s a huge park in Minnesota, but then why are all of their pitchers doing so poorly? Finally, signing two guys to big contracts when they aren’t anywhere close to competing is far beyond me. These signings make no sense whatsoever.

The Athletics sign LHP Scott Kazmir. Nice comeback story for Kazmir last year with Cleveland, after pitching the previous season with the Sugarland Skeeters of the Independent League. His ERA hovered around 4 last year, which is respectable, and he posted nice strikeout numbers for a starter. But can he do it again? The A’s surely think so, considering the $22M contract they gave him. This was a risky signing, but a good risk in my opinion.

(UPDATE: The Athletics have also traded INF Jemile Weeks and a player to be named to the Orioles in exchange for AL saves leader Jim Johnson)

The Tigers trade RHP Doug Fister to the Nationals. There were rumors that it would be Max Scherzer being traded by Detroit, but they chose Fister instead. Fister was arguably the best fourth starter in the MLB (pitching behind Scherzer, the Cy Young award winner; Justin Verlander, a former Cy Young award winner and MVP, and Anibal Sanchez, the ERA champion in the AL). Since coming over to the Tigers, Fister has shown much consistency, maintaining a very respectable ERA of about 3.50 in each of his years there. This will prove to be a major upgrade to an already great Nationals rotation, clearly. The Tigers will not reap the benefits of this trade immediately, as the three players they got back in return (Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol, and Robbie Ray) are all fairly young. At least for now, it clears a space for Drew Smyly, and they still have minor league pitching depth; so this wasn’t as big of a loss for the Tigers as it is a gain for the Nats.

Other worth-mentioning notes. The Royals extend GM Dayton Moore for two years. Ted Lilly, the 15-year veteran of 7 MLB teams, has retired. The Mets continue to show interest in Bronson Arroyo and Curtis Granderson. And Finally, the Yankees and Robinson Cano remain $80M apart in contract negotiations.

(UPDATE: The Boston Red Sox have signed catcher AJ Pierzynski to a one year, $8.25 million contract)

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Ben Ozur is an absolute baseball guru. He is a huge Mets, Jets, Knicks and Islanders fan whose life revolves around fantasy sports.

Prince Fielder Traded to Texas Rangers in Exchange for Ian Kinsler

By Ben Ozur

This is no joke! It has been confirmed that this trade is official. Quite the movement of talent to say the least, not to mention the money! But why did this trade happen?

The Texas Rangers made it very clear that they wanted to move a middle infielder, whether it be Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, or Jurickson Profar. It was clear that Kinsler would be the best of the three for them to move, as the other two are still in their young 20s. Also, Kinsler’s contract doesn’t last as long as the others, so they don’t lose a ton of control of a valuable player. With this trade, Profar can now become the everyday second baseman. But there’s more to that than you may think.

The Texas Rangers wanted Profar in the lineup every day, as opposed to the utility role he served in 2013. Thus, a trade needed to be made. But was Kinsler unhappy about this? Perhaps. There were many rumors that Kinsler would have to change positions to either leftfield or first base. Kinsler is a two-time 30/30 player (HRs and stolen bases), so considering his speed, moving him to first base would waste that speed. This potential move makes sense, considering David Murphy just left as a free agent to play with the Cleveland Indians, and Mitch Moreland hasn’t played up to his full potential. There are plenty of outfielders on both the free agent and trade markets, but not first basemen. So they made it happen by acquiring Prince Fielder. Now, why would the Tigers do this?

Prince Fielder is now a member of the Texas Rangers (Via AP)

Prince Fielder is now a member of the Texas Rangers (Via AP)

The Detroit Tigers were expected by many to repeat as AL Champions in 2013 and maybe even win the World Series. They received these expectations after signing Prince Fielder to a 9-year/$214M contract in the 2011-12 offseason, and his first year was a huge success. He won a Silver Slugger and took his team to the World Series. This was seen as a very hefty contract, but the Tigers had the money to spend and felt that they needed that left-handed bat in the middle of their lineup. Though he had a down year in 2013 (at least for his standards), he has done everything the Tigers have asked him to do.

The Detroit Tigers also have a large hole at second base. Omar Infante, their regular second baseman in 2013, is now a free agent. Not knowing if he would resign, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski didn’t hesitate in finding his replacement. Ian Kinsler, in my opinion, is the third-best second baseman in the game (only behind Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia), and with the inflation currently in the game of baseball, Kinsler’s contract doesn’t comparatively look too much look like an overpay. Trading for him seems to be worthwhile, but at what cost? Prince Fielder!

So now everyone wants to know: who won this deal? It’s too early to tell, considering it just happen. But I’d presume that most people believe that this was an absolute steal for the Rangers. Not so fast. There are many factors that must be considered in this:

 

  1. Who wins the money-side of the trade? Considering that there isn’t a drastic difference in their talent, I would rather take a guy who’s making over $100M less. This is a big win for the Tigers.
  2. Who had a bigger net upgrade between first and second bases? I believe that each player is a top five player at his respective position. Because first base is a significantly stronger position than second base right now, finding a good second baseman is hard. It’s not as difficult to find a talented first baseman. Now, I still believe in Mitch Moreland. I don’t think that the Rangers HAD to trade for Fielder as much as they had to move Kinsler. So it doesn’t make too much sense, from this perspective, for the Rangers. But it made MUCH less sense for the Tigers. Because now we must ask the biggest question of all: who takes over as the Tigers’ first baseman in 2014? Um… exactly! Who will fill the role of cleanup hitter now? Ultimately, Victor Martinez will get the first stab at it, but his hitting prowess doesn’t compare to that of Prince Fielder. It is no contest here: advantage, Rangers.
  3. Who had a bigger hole to fill? There are more available second basemen than first basemen on the free agent market, so finding one wouldn’t be terribly difficult. The Tigers could’ve found any second baseman and given him a smaller contact, and he could’ve been serviceable. Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis fit this profile perfectly. Like I just said, the Tigers’ first base is a massive, and I mean MASSIVE, hole to try to fill. So the Tigers didn’t fill a hole, they created one. On the other side, the Rangers had a surplus of middle infielders and felt a need for an upgrade at first base (like I said, I don’t completely agree, but I understand where this is coming from). So, there wasn’t a huge problem to fill, by default, the Rangers win this argument.
  4. And, of course, who’s the better player? You could look at this from a bunch of different angles. To make it simple, we’ll look at three: at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. Fielder clearly has the advantage at the plate, but not as much as you may have first expected. There are many comps to Fielder as a first baseman at the plate (i.e. Votto, Goldschmidt, Davis, Gonzalez, and Freeman) and not as many to Kinsler (considering power and contact, only Robinson Cano and Brandon Phillips). I’ll still give Fielder the benefit of the doubt. On the bases and in the field? Kinsler is the clear-cut winner. When you put this all together, what’s the answer? They really are so close, it’s hard to make the call. I could easily be persuaded either way.

So one edge for the Tigers, two for the Rangers, and a tie. Does this mean that the Rangers automatically win the trade? Not quite. The money argument is the most lopsided, in my opinion. They are similar players, after all, yet Fielder is being paid more than double what Kinsler is making.

So considering all of this, who wins the trade? I really don’t know. It is still too close to call and too early to judge. If I had to make a guess, I think this gives the Rangers a bigger immediate boost, but the Tigers will be more satisfied in the long haul. Again, I don’t feel strongly about this on either side; it’s just my prediction. What I can tell you is that a trade of this magnitude (one star for another, straight up) is very rare. Normally, it’s easier to judge the winner, but not here.

The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers have made significant trades to their roster, so these two teams will be very interesting to watch going forward.

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Ben Ozur is an absolute baseball guru. He is a huge Mets, Jets, Knicks and Islanders fan whose life revolves around fantasy sports.